Price development of the Patek Philippe Nautilus: A forecast

The Nautilus is a legend: Together with the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, it founded the hype for sporty luxury watches that continues to this day. Moreover, the sports model of the Geneva-based manufacturer is one of the few timepieces that is also known outside the watchmaking world for its enormous price increase. The performance of the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711, in particular, has been impressive. While the list price was most recently 29,080 euros, market prices are now around 135,000 euros - and rising.

The stainless steel reference 5711/1A was launched in 2006 on the occasion of the 30th Nautilus anniversary and was successively removed from the model portfolio: While the Nautilus with the white dial (ref. 5711/1A-011) was already on the annual run-out list in 2020, Patek Philippe discontinued the blue Nautilus (ref. 5711/1A-010) just one year later.

Since 2020 at the latest, it was clear that the Ref. 5711 would come to an end in the foreseeable future. This certainty was already reflected in the market prices, which in turn rose sharply in January 2021, when the discontinuation of the Nautilus with the blue dial also became known. Thus, the Nautilus value trend follows the simple market law of supply and demand. However, it is not only the Ref. 5711 that is experiencing a high price increase; other variants of the model have also gradually become more expensive in recent months and years. These include above all the well-known vintage references 3700 (Jumbo) and 3800 (Midsize Nautilus) and the Ref. 5712 with hand date, moon phase and power reserve display.

The reasons for the price increase of the entire Nautilus collection are many and varied and partly interact with each other; the leading causes are nevertheless obvious: when the coveted classic with the Ref. 5711 moves out of its own economic reach, other, cheaper model variants become more attractive. Nothing else could and can ultimately be observed in connection with the Aquanaut. The discontinuation or imminent discontinuation of certain references also fuels the price development - and in turn, makes other models more attractive.

The past is written history; far more exciting, however, is the question of the price development of the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711 in the years to come. Of course, it is hardly possible to predict the future. It cannot be ruled out with any degree of certainty that a much more attractive luxury sports watch than the Ref. 5711 will be presented in the near future, nor that the world economy will decline due to exceptionally severe crises in such a way that the demand for high-priced luxury watches will also decrease.

However, those signs that are discernible and foreseeable suggest that the Nautilus will remain highly stable in value and may even continue to increase in value. This is mainly because those reasons that led to the sharp price increase and established the success story of the Nautilus are not only likely to continue but will intensify in the coming years.

Initially, small pieces face a huge hype: Patek Philippe builds around 60,000 watches a year. The Ref. 5711 was only one of 140 different models and is no longer produced. While the supply was already extremely low during the production times of the Nautilus, this can only get lower due to the model run-out. New or unworn models, in particular, will hardly be available in the coming years and will fetch top prices.

Moreover, the Nautilus will remain one of the greatest watch classics and thus one of the most sought-after timepieces ever. A luxury watch does not achieve such status overnight, but only after many years. The prestige of the Nautilus will and can only grow. It is unlikely that comparable classics will follow in the foreseeable future or even take the place of the Nautilus.

In addition, Patek Philippe has launched just two jumbo models in the Nautilus' almost 50-year history: The original Nautilus and the Ref. 5711. This should not only maintain the desirability of the classic Ref. 5711 but only increase it as time goes on. Nor does it look like Patek Philippe will present a successor to the three-hand Nautilus in the coming years: Patek president Thierry Stern has long expressed that he sees classic, complicated gold watches as the focus of the manufacturer. A single model should not "dominate Patek's image".

New price records rarely harmonise with one's imagination. Just as today's prices were hardly imaginable three years ago, looking back six years, prices were hardly imaginable three years ago. However, the current situation - especially in light of Patek Philippe's intention to focus less on the Nautilus in the future - speaks for itself: prices are still expected to rise significantly.

Which Patek Philippe Nautilus price trend is most promising cannot be judged with certainty at present. This is especially the case with the question of whether the blue or white dial of the ref. 5711 is preferable: the white version was easier to obtain because it was less sought-after. Whether the resulting rarity of the white Ref. 5711/1A-011 will lead to higher prices is not yet clear against the background of the greater popularity of the blue Ref. 5711/1A-010 to date. Currently, the prices are about the same. In this respect, a late firing of the Ref. 5711/1A-011 is at best possible. However, special attention should also be paid to Ref. 5712, whose discontinuation is discussed repeatedly. As soon as this reference is discontinued, prices will skyrocket.

However, one thing should be clear: You can't go wrong with a Patek Philippe Nautilus - either on the wrist or in terms of investment potential. Discover immediately available models in our online shop. Always including a 24-month CHRONEXT warranty.